The World Meteorological Organization (WMO) has warned that the ongoing El Niño event is expected to strengthen into a very strong episode in the coming months, driven by exceptionally warm sea-surface temperatures in the central and eastern tropical Pacific. The phenomenon is forecast to peak towards the end of 2026, with its climate effects potentially continuing into 2027. According to WMO forecasts, there is a nearly 100% likelihood that El Niño will persist through February 2027. Recent observations show the Niño 3.4 region warming significantly, with sea-surface temperatures reaching around 2.2°C–2.6°C above average in weekly observations between late July and mid-August. Subsurface ocean temperatures in some areas were more than 8°C above average, providing further support for continued strengthening. A very strong El Niño can significantly alter global temperature and rainfall patterns, increasing the likelihood of extreme heat, droughts and floods in different parts of the world. However, WMO stresses that the intensity of El Niño does not automatically determine the severity of impacts in every region, as local conditions and other climate drivers—such as the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD)—can modify its effects.